Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Merry Christmas Tree, Bob Bradley

Bob Bradley's tactics were very effective against Spain and he was given a lot of credit in the Football media. However, those of us who follow the USMNT more regularly know that this is a case of even a stopped clock being right twice a day. Bob Bradley's usual tactics just happened to be highly effective against Spain. Spain want to play through the center of midfield and rely on individual brilliance to tell. They are shut down by pressuring their creative midfield players, denying them time and space to turn, face goal and pick out the pass to create chances, and defending deep so Torres and Villa don't have space to run into behind the back four. This is why Spain are always knocked out of these tournaments unexpectedly - they have trouble breaking down teams they dominate when they force them to defend deep.

This tactic was effective against a team like Spain and has been effective against a team like Mexico that likes to play through the middle. This is one reason why we've had their number in recent years. However, Mexico has gone from playing straight up the middle to playing from wide into the center so I would suggest that they've cracked this tactic now by waiting until our midfield gets pulled out to the flanks and then cutting inside. Bob Bradley needs something new that will work against the better European teams as well as Mexico and Spain.

While USMNT fans wait expectantly for his return from injury, the addition of new boy Jermaine Jones of Schalke to the USMNT set-up just screams for a 4-3-2-1 christmas tree formation. This tactic would dominate the center of midfield where we tend to be a bit soft and concede goals, helping us tighten up defensively and ensuring we are still very dangerous on the counterattack. In this variation on the diamond midfield, the lone striker is supported by two creative players that lie deeper and have freedom to roam the pitch finding space. The 3-player midfield is relatively narrow, anchored by a player that stays deeper in midfield, provides the easy option and changes the point of attack in possession while sitting in front of the back four when defending. The two shuttling players can be can be two box-to-box types or more defensive destroyer types but they must work very hard, which we know they can do.

This scheme is well-suited to our best available players, with Altidore or Davies playing up top, Donovan and Dempsey behind and new-joiner Jones anchoring a narrow midfield three with two of Bradley, Edu, Feilhaber, Torres and Clark shuttling. The shuttling midfielders are free to press high and play box-to-box while Jones sits in front of the back four and is the easy option in possession. Defensively that pushes opposition attacks onto the wings where Donovan and Dempsey's responsibilities are to pressure the opposing fullbacks. Unlike the traditional diamond midfield this scheme doesn't suffer from a lack of width because of a this defensive assignment - one of the attacking players should always be starting out wide. This makes the one of Davies, Altidore not starting a killer sub that could come on in like-for-like or for a midfielder to revert to 4-4-2 or go to a 4-3-1-2 setup, with Donovan or Dempsey dropping back into midfield.

Defensively, the attacking midfield should try to deny service straight up the flanks by putting pressure on the opposing fullbacks, forcing them to play the ball inside, where the two shuttling players are given license to pressure by the sitting player who looks to cut out the through balls and patrol the space in front of the back four in an arc. This allows the midfield to apply high pressure, without worrying about leaving space in front of the back for long-range shooting. If the attacking team beats the pressure, everyone drops back and defends space, with the shuttling midfielders applying pressure centrally when the ball is in their area and supporting inside the fullbacks and further up the pitch when it's on the flank, ready to mark any late runs inside the fullback. The fullback should be ready go with any outside overlapping runner with the midfielder taking the man who played the ball. We have the center backs to deal with aerial crosses so an overlap isn't dangerous unless the player making the pass is left alone to receive a cut-back in an area to shoot.

Luckily, our centre-backs no longer trade in comedy defending but Bradley's tactical acumen is entirely geared towards that previous era - our players of a few years ago against the Mexican style of a couple year ago. Defensively, we must shed the "stop the cross to stop the goal mentality" that pulls us out of shape because we have two solid, centrebacks that are good in the air. We should be happy to concede some possession on the flanks and defend against the inside cut-backs and leaving space to shoot in front of the central defenders. How many goals have we conceded from aerial crosses? Not many.

In our attacking play, we need to stop pretending we have a striker that can win the ball in the air and bring others into the play because we just don't have that player at the international level. Brian Ching is clearly not a replacement for Brain McBride. The USMNT is a good counterattacking team, pure and simple, so we need to stop conceding so softly and learn to make two goals tell, even against the world's best, with regularity. So Happy Christmas Bob, these are the tactics that ensure your son can stay in the team and we stand the best chance at the World Cup.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Chelsea vs. Sunderland

I didn't watch this match, but I thought I'd comment on it briefly. The Guardian offers an amazing analytical tool called Chalkboards which track every bit of play during premiership matches. These allow you to truly understand tactically, what is happening out on the pitch after the fact, even without watching a match. I created this chalkboard this morning which compares Chelsea's passing during their 3-1 victory over Sunderland to Arsenal's during their 6-1 dismantling of Everton at the week-end.


by Guardian Chalkboards

Arsenal are obviously known for their slick passing movement, while Chelsea have garnered something of a different reputation, since they have often over-utilized the Route 1 approach to exploit Drogba's physical presence. That's what makes this chalkboard surprising - Ancelotti's Chelsea is clearly something different. Chelsea completed 495 of 557 passes (90%) compared to Arsenal's 345 of 415 (83%) again Everton. Compare the two team's passing in the final third, and you'll note the number of red arrows coming into the box in the final third of Chelsea's board. Obviously Chelsea still put in far more crosses than Arsenal, but they're coming in from more advanced areas. However, note the absence of long red arrows which would indicate speculative long passes from deeper areas.

The foundation of Chelsea's dominance, especially in the second half, was the interplay between Essien, at the base of a midfield diamond and the two fullbacks, Bosingwa and A. Cole. Essien completed 79 of 82 passes (96%), Cole completed 55 of 61 (90%) and Bosingwa 61 of 72 (85%). Of Cole and Bosingwa's unsuccessful passes, each had a single unsuccessful pass in the defensive half of the field. 11 of their 17 unsuccessful passes were attempted crosses. Essien played short and kept possession ticking over along with Ballack (49 of 54, 90%) to a lesser degree, relying on Lampard (43 of 55, 78%) and Deco (40 of 52, 77%) for more incisive passing in the final third. Essien and Ballack are certainly capable of playing more incisive passes but in this case, Ancelotti clearly instructed them not to. In this match, the midfield diamond often tilted onto it's side to form a square with Essien and Ballack at it's base, Lampard and Deco in more advanced positions.

I'm trying to put together a chalkboard comparing John Obi Mikel's static first half passing vs. Hull City to Michael Essien's dynamic second half vs. Sunderland. The Guardian's chalkboards seem to be having some trouble with player to player comparisons so I will post if I can get it to work. It shows Essien's wide range of movement and passing across the width of the entire pitch, and the creative use of short passes compared to Obi Mikel's tendency to repeatedly use the same passing routes from a much narrower range of positioning. I really think Ancelotti may be on to something with Essien playing in this position. Premier League, Europe, watch out for this Chelsea side.

The Guardian's match report is here.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Post Mortem: US v Mexico at Azteca

The US Men's National team has a dream start to their World Cup Qualifier against Mexico at Azteca (2300m above sea level), taking an early lead at 9 minutes on a cracking goal from Davies. They soon brought crashing back down to high-altitude ground when Mexico to equalized about 10 minutes later through from Castro's shot from distance . The winning goal for Mexico came at 82 minutes when Sabah found himself with time and space after Donovan couldn't match Juárez for pace on his drive to the end line and DeMerit's tackle couldn't clear the danger. The winning goal was not a thing of beauty, rather the result of defenders with tired legs and tired minds.

Let's look at how Bob Bradley's tactics contributed to the goals we conceded. Bradley started with two "destroyers" in central midfield, as he likes to do. It may work to spark counterattacks against inferior opposition, but against any good team with midfielders who are able to play out of pressure, it doesn't work to pressure so aggressively. The first goal clearly illustrated the problem with having two players that share similar instincts playing together in this area. Bradley pressured Blanco, lunged in to tackle and was beaten. Clark saw danger and rushed towards it, before being beaten by Blanco's pass into the space he'd left. Bocanegra stepped toward Castro and made a rather feeble attempt to block the shot. Howard was beaten by a great strike that resulted from the time and space that was given to shoot.

We've conceded a shocking number of goals from this area over the summer. Like Bradley, Clark's instinct is always to pressure the ball, but his instinct was absolutely wrong. His decision would probably not have been punished in MLS, but international midfielders will score when given time and space to shoot at 30 yards. I hope he will learn this lesson in time for the World Cup when he completes his move to Italy. Instead of pressuring the ball when Bradley was beaten, Clark needed to defend positionally - protecting the space in front of the center backs by dropping deeper and more central. It's one of the central defenders that should step out once Bradley is beaten, with Cherundolo tucking into the vacated space.

This either forces Blanco into the central defenders who can deal with the danger, forces him to play a more difficult reverse pass into the space on the wing left by Cherundolo, or leaves Clark in position to deny time and space for a shot when Blanco plays his pass. Instead, Clarke completely overcommited and took himself out of the play, something he and Bradley both do this with a frustrating frequency. Even if Bocanegra had stepped to pressure the shot in time, there's still an easy ball is into the space he's left to the player on the wing. Once Clark over commits, our defensive shape breaks down completely, with all the support coming from the wrong side. The fact is we have very good individual defenders in the center, but they aren't yet working effectively as a team - this is an indictment of their manager.

The second goal looked the result of tired defenders - both mentally and physically. Bocanegra stood still as Juárez drove to the endline, then failed to tuck in and defend the cut-back. DeMerit could have defended the cross, rather than trying to tackle. However, this is the type of goal that sometimes comes from conceding the lion's share of possession at any altitude, let alone 2300 metres. Lack of possessoin is another consequence of Bob Bradley's "two destroyers" tactic. It means there's no player in the centre of midfield to link possession from wing to wing through midfield. This allows Mexico to cheat and press the wing with the ball than they could if we had a player capable of quickly switching the play to the weak side. The way to prevent this is to switch the point of attack frequently so opposing teams worry about open space on their opposite flank. To do this through midfield, you need a good passer, comfortable on the ball under pressure in the center, or the ball can be played across the back four which allows more time for the defense to recover or long from fullback-to-fullback. Bradley is more comfortable on the ball than Clark, but neither of them are capable of effectively playing this role. Instead, we get Dempsey coming inside, which means the fullback must overlap on the wing, or one of our strikers needs to drop back and wide. (This is what Thierry Henri was so found of doing at Arsenal).

I think in terms of timing and tactics, Bob Bradley's substitutions were much better this match, unfortunately the players just didn't have the same impact that Mexico's substitutions did. Our ability to keep possession improved somewhat with the addition of Feilhaber, but his positive impact was negated by the fact that Holden never really settled into the match, despite putting in a dangerous cross that nearly resulted in Davies second. I never thought I'd say this, but I might've gone with Bornstein for Bocanegra to shore up our defense against the speed of the Mexican attack instead of Holden, but I'm not sure he was among Bradley's substitutes. Given his constant threat, I might have left Davies on the pitch (provided he wasn't really injured) and substituted Altidore for Dempsey, given his less than influential performance.

It was really frustrating to lose after starting so well, but we simply bunkered down too early. We've still never won at Azteca, but that's the only place left Mexico can beat us these days, and I think at minimum the comfort level is gone. Mexico are a good team who played well and had some very good young attacking players to bring off the bench. If Aguirre has any sense, most will mostly be starters by World Cup time. Bradley made better use of his substitutes but must soon recognize the shortcomings of "two destroyers" tactic and experiment with putting a creative player in central midfield in the form of Feilhaber or Torres. Jermaine Jones should be called in when he's fit and could threaten his son's spot on this performance. We must call in Castillo and see what he offers at left back over the next few matches. Bradley must improve our team defensive tactics. My general feeling is that Bradley has taken this program as far as he is able, which isn't going to be enough to reach the next level, despite now having the players to do so. The coming World Cup could be an enormously frustrating experience after the Confederations Cup raised the expectation level.

US Player Ratings (1 = Not Worthy of the Jersey, 10 = World Class * = Man of the Match)

Howard - 6: Solid performance from a top goalkeeper. Made a couple of good saves and was not at fault for either goal conceded.
Cherundolo - 5: Was concerned about his inclusion after a middling Gold Cup performance, but defended well, keeping the left side of the Mexican attack fairly quiet.
DeMerit - 5: Not up to the high standards of his Confederations cup performance, but not the source of defensive problems. Might have done better on the 2nd goal.
Onyewu - 6: Solid, more confident defending, perhaps the only player to play better than during the Confederations Cup. His time at AC Milan seems to have had a positive effect on his sense of positioning, and his ability to deal with danger with calm confidence but his play out of the back still needs work.
Bocanegra - 3: Might have done more to prevent the first goal, but the defensive breakdown wasn't his fault. Was left standing on the winning goal, then failed to track behind Donovan to intercept the cut back. Wasn't up to dealing with Mexico's speed in attack. Time to bring Castillo into the side.
Clark - 3: Culpable for the Mexican equalizer and demonstrated the problem with deploying two players with the same instinct in the center of midfield as detailed in my previous post. Otherwise defended passably but did nothing to help retain possession and relieve the pressure.
Bradley - 4: Not his best performance. Seemed uncomfortable with the ball under pressure and gave it away frequently with overly ambitious, rushed passing.
Donovan - 6: Provider of an excellent through ball on Davies goal. Fell quiet afterwards. Beaten for speed to the end line on Mexico's winner. Much more comfortable and effective on the right than on the left.
Dempsey - 5: Started fairly well but his influence wained as the match progressed. Defended well. Not influential once he moved up top.
Davies - 8*: A beautiful curling finish after getting behind the Mexican defense - one of the best goals the US has ever scored. Nearly had a second from a diving header which he must want back. Always dangerous. The best performance by a long stretch.
Ching - 1: Justified my displeasure at his starting. Did not have an effective touch of the ball until he won a foul in the 39th minute. Did not win balls in the air, did not hold up play with first touch deserting him when the ball was played to his feet, did not do much of anything. Under any other manager, would have played himself off the team with this performance. Thought he had done so with the Gold Cup.

Holden - 4: Played a dangerous cross to Davies. Still didn't seem to settle and looked like the occasion got to him at times.
Feilhaber - 5: Would've like to see his impact had he started. At minimum, should have come on for Clarke at the half.
Altidore - 4: Promising but didn't make enough of an impact with little possession.

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Turning a Corner: US vs. Mexico at Azteca

Despite fresh memories of our Gold Cup embarrassment, I'm actually beginning to think this team has finally turned a corner. Unlike Mexico's roster, excepting 3 players, our side is completely different from that of the Gold Cup final. And I think we've got one hell of a good chance at winning for no other reason than Bob Bradley is a creature of habit - hopefully we'll just get more of what worked so well for 2.5 games in the Confederation Cup.

For the US National Team, from 1990 through the last world cup winning has always been a question of defending like crazy and hoping a goal comes from somewhere. This has changed. Now we have a good combination of speed, power, and creativity in our first team that means we can score against any team in the world. Bradley Sr. really just needs to get the defensive tactics correct - which happened pretty much by accident in the Confederations Cup - and we need to keep possession a bit better (above 45%, minimum, even against the very best opponents). In contrast, the Gold Cup final showed us what can happen when the tactics are wrong.

Let's look at the US attack. Altidore and Davies present a real threat and cause defensive problems with a combination of speed and power. Speed always kills in international football, simply because defenses don't play together enough to deal with it using teamwork as effectively as they often do on the club level. Filling out the roster, Ching isn't an attacking substitute you'd like to see when you're down a goal, but I can see him as a useful substitute when you have the lead with 30 minutes to go, are facing pressure and need more posession. I just don't see Conor Casey as a good option at the international level and hope Cooper excels at his new German club and relieves him of his spot prior to the World Cup.

Luckily, the versatality of our attack-minded midfielders makes the lack of quality off the bench at forward less of a problem. Dempsey has shown for the US and Fulham that he has a gift for finding space and scoring important goals. He easily can slot in at forward in a more conservative starting eleven or to cause problems late in the game. He uses a freer role more effectively than Donovan, getting in position to score himself rather than just setting the table.

Save against Mexico and the CONCACAF minnows, I've always considered Donovan something of an underachiever at the international level. However, he finally impressed me during the Confederation's Cup and began to show he's capable of playing both ways against the best opposition. Hopefully this is a sign that he's developing the footballing intelligence to go with his technical skills, because his tendency to kill promising moves with questionable decisions is enormously frustrating. He seems to do better when given more defensive responsibility in midfield because it puts him in position to better use his speed with the ball in attack. Given the delayed developmental path American players take, these two players are just entering their prime.

His early performances suggest Feilhaber might just be embarking on his break-out season, and could be an option to start or be a killer sub when spaces begin to open in the final 30 minutes of a match. I've not seen Torres play myself, but many rate him highly as the type of player that could help keep more possession. A big plus for Torres is he plays in these conditions every week in the Mexican league. Holden is a decent option off the bench in wide midfield. These are the type of promising young players, which we might see off the bench.

Now let's consider our defense, starting with the back four's cover in central midfield. Bradley and Clark are both combative midfield "destroyers" rather than true holding players. Once suspected to be a beneficiary of nepotism, Michael Bradley has more than proven himself as the best destructive option in central midfield on this roster. Ideally Bradley should partner with a more attacking player that can create and keep possession while he stays at home or a true holding player giving him free reign to play the destroyer role and apply pressure in midfield. When he and Clark play together they have a tendency to over-commit, both pressuring the ball, leaving the sort of space in front of the back four that was exploited by Giuseppe Rossi for Italy in the Confederations Cup.

Bob Bradley, however, seems to like deploying 2 destroyers, even though it restricts our ability to keep possession under pressure, so I wouldn't be surprised to see Clark. Given there's no true holding midfielder in this roster, the only other option seems to make it a choice between Torres and Feilhaber playing in midfield along with Bradley. With the upcoming arrival of Jermaine Jones into the mix as a true holding player and the expected return of Maurice Edu from injury, Bradley has a wealth of tactical options in central midfield, all capable of playing at a high level.

In the back four, the central defensive partnership is set: Onyewu and DeMerit. There is really no need to discuss it - they work well together with Gooch bringing the muscle while DeMerit brings the tactical awareness to sweep up danger. Out on the wings, Bob Bradley has to realize, we no longer need to have fullbacks overlap to score goals and it may be a bad tactical choice against good counterattacking teams with quality up top. Unlike the teams that successfully deploy wing backs, we tend to be erratic in maintaining possession and we don't have a true holding player to fill the exposed gaps. Fullbacks should be instructed to be conservative in their runs and maintain the defensive shape, even if we fall behind. They should rarely venture further forward than the sort of spots where Spector's deep crosses led to a pair of Dempsey goals in the Confederations Cup. The fullbacks sudden urgency to get into advanced positions and get a goal back left our centre backs completely exposed and was the prime reason we conceded 5 goals against Mexico in the Gold Cup final.

On this roster, Bornstein is really the worst offender in this regard. His speed tempts him to be tactically naive, leaving all that space and hoping it won't be used effectively. It's not as if his crosses will be missed and he tends to congest things on the left. When he gets beyond Dempsey, as he does far too frequently, there's no longer any support from the fullback to help maintain possession. Passing options break down, leaving Dempsey to take a defender on, or attempt a difficult pass, often losing possession and putting the left side under pressure. This leaves some fans frustrated with Dempsey when it's more a consequence of Bornstein's ill-advised forward runs. Much better for the left back to simply stay at home and support the midfield in maintaining possession, especially under the conditions at Azteca.

To a large extent, this explains the sudden defensive improvement when Bocanegra took up the left-back position. I think Bradley has a quandary here - Bocanegra will be more conservative, but he's a central back playing on the wing against a speedy Mexican attack. A more disciplined Bornstein with clear instructions on how far forward he's allowed to venture may be the best option here. We won't really know unless one or the other of them is exposed. There is a similar predicament with a toss-up for the other fullback position with Spector and Cherundolo in competition for the spot on the right. Given their respective performances in the Confederations cup and Gold Cup, I'd say that's Spectors spot to lose.

As for defensive options left off this roster, Frankie Hejduk on the right has all the downsides of a Bornstein but his work rate makes it look like less of a problem - it still leaves the centre backs exposed. I'm hoping that Edgar Castillo is a bit more disciplined than Bornstein, can keep possession out of the back more effectively, put in more threatening crosses when he does get forward and becomes the more attacking option at left back.

As for the 3 Houston player on the roster. It may annoy the people who feel Bob is putting loyalty to certain players above fielding the best team, but given the weather we're likely to face at Azteca, these guys do play under the most similar conditions. It even almost makes sense considering the conditions. If we see Bornstein start, this is probably the reason why. He needs clear instructions not to run beyond the left midfielder. I think we may see Torres start as well. I feel like Bradley might want to hold one of his best players back. I would almost (but not quite) like to see Holden start on the left with Dempsey coming on 15 minutes into the second half. Alternatively, we could see Dempsey at forward with Altidore and see Davies for Holden and Ching for Altidore with Dempsey dropping back to midfield. I think it's just as likely we'll see the starting line-up from the Confederation's Cup.

Here's my formation, starters and potential substitutes:








Altidore
Dempsey
HoldenTorresDonovan
Bradley
Bornstein Onyewu DeMeritSpector
Howard

Possible Tactical Substitutes:

Attacking:
Davies for Holden/Altidore at 60-70 minutes.
Feilhaber for Torres/Holden at 45-60 minutes.

Defensive:
Bocanegra for Bornstein at first sign of trouble.
Ching for Altidore/Holden at 60-75 minutes
Clark for Torres at 75-80 minutes

Bradley Names 20-Man Roster To Prepare For FIFA World Cup Qualifier in Mexico

GOALKEEPERS (2): Brad Guzan (Aston Villa: 5/3 SO), Tim Howard (Everton FC: 11/7 SO)
DEFENDERS (7): Carlos Bocanegra (Rennes: 21/3), Jonathan Bornstein (Chivas USA, 2/0), Steve Cherundolo (Hannover: 18/0), Jay DeMerit (Watford: 2/0), Chad Marshall (Columbus Crew: 1/0), Oguchi Onyewu (AC Milan: 16/1), Jonathan Spector (West Ham: 2/0)
MIDFIELDERS (6): Michael Bradley (Borussia Mönchengladbach: 10/4), Ricardo Clark (Houston Dynamo: 5/0), Clint Dempsey (Fulham FC: 17/4), Benny Feilhaber (AGF Aarhus: 1/0), Stuart Holden (Houston Dynamo: 0/0), José Francisco Torres (Pachuca: 5/0)
FORWARDS (5): Jozy Altidore (Hull City: 8/5), Conor Casey (Colorado Rapids: 5/0), Brian Ching (Houston Dynamo: 15/6), Charlie Davies (FC Sochaux: 2/1), Landon Donovan (Los Angeles Galaxy: 30/11)
*numbers indicate all-time World Cup Qualifying caps/goals